Death Numbers From The Death Register Records






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This page relates to Death Register deaths and Covid-19, in England and Wales for 2020 and 2021.

If you want to skip all the explanation, the chart above, and the table below, show the number of deaths so far this year, compared to the average deaths from the previous five years.

I am updating this page weekly. You may have to refresh your browser to see the latest figures and graph. (Opera Ctrl+F5).

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WHY I CONSTRUCTED THIS PAGE
I wanted to get a better idea of how Covid-19 is affecting people in England and Wales.
I wanted to get a better idea of how severe the pandemic really is.
Not all of the Covid-19 figures I am seeing are accurate, so I decided to take anything to do with Covid-19 out of the picture, and instead, take a look at the number of 'all' deaths that are occurring.
I would then be able to see how the number of deaths this year compare to the number of recorded deaths from previous years.
If the Covid-19 pandemic is having a major effect on deaths, just like the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, then there should be an extremely marked increase in the number of deaths in England and Wales this year, when compared to earlier years.


The Covid-19 cases reported on the internet, and by the media, are confusing to say the least.
Not all Covid numbers are being recorded, so the picture is distorted.
Many Covid figures are just guesses, based on smaller samples!
The picture will only get better as time goes by, and when we can look back.
There are millions of people that have not been tested, so we cannot say with certainty how many are infected and how many are not infected.
We do not know for sure, how many people have been infected and are no longer infected.
The media like to brandish large figures, and back the numbers up with alarm (because it has to get attention and sell stories).
Are the figures really as worrying as we are being led to believe? I decided to try to get a better idea, based on actual known and dependable figures.

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NOTES AND ACKNOWLEDGMENT

Fortunately the Government keeps accurate records. Every death is recorded in an online death register. And, even more fortunately, the Government is publishing figures that show the average number of deaths, for each week, for the last 5 years.

The figures in the table below are obtained from the online death register. There may be some lag as data finds its way through the system. The figures in the table are provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, in the latest weeks for which data are available.

Source:- ONS - Office for National Statistics - licensed under the Open Government Licence.
Original data can be found at this Government website

I consider the figures on this page to be pretty accurate as they are taken from death certificate records. But please note, the figures are provisional (see notes on the original spreadsheet via the link above).

Column C shows the number of deaths each week for 2020.
Column D shows the average number of deaths each week for the previous 5 years.
Column E is the difference between the deaths in a particular week. The calculation is [column D MINUS column C] or [deaths in a week in 2020 MINUS the average deaths over the previous 5 years, for the corresponding week].
Column G is the difference in deaths, but are accumulated week on week. For example Week 1 deaths of 79 + Week 2 deaths of 236 = 315 deaths so far in the year at Week 2. The Week 3 difference of -226 deaths added to accumulated deaths of 315 at Week 2 = 89 deaths so far in the year at Week 3.
So, figures from Week 1 are added to Week 2, and the total is put against Week 2. The Week 2 figure is then added to Week 3, and the total is put against Week 3. And so on.

For the period 3rd January 2020 to 27th March 2020, the number of deaths each week, are generally well below the average number of deaths seen in the previous five years (2015-2019).

At week ending 27th March 2020, the total number of deaths accumulated up until that week (column G) are 3,811 DOWN, when compared to the five year average (2015-2019). At that point in time, the deaths are 3,811 lower than previous years.

From the 3rd April 2020 we begin to see a large increase in the number of weekly deaths when compared to weekly deaths in the previous 5 years (2015-2019).

The total number of deaths accumulated for the period 3rd January 2020 to 1st January 2021 are 74,990 more than the previous five years (2015-2019).

The total number of deaths accumulated for the period 8th January 2021 to 17th September 2021 are 34,779 more than the previous five years (2015-2019).

The total number of deaths accumulated for the period 8th January 2021 to 1st October 2021 are 36,459 more than the previous five years (2015-2019).

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TABLE AND CHART - Number of deaths (by week) for England and Wales only.
The figures in columns A,B,C, and D are copied from the Governments publication. All other columns of data are my calculations.

The population of England and Wales in 2018 was roughly 59,110,000.

A B C D E F G H
Week Number Week Ending Weekly deaths 2020 & 2021 Weekly deaths - average for the previous 5 years (2015-2019) Difference between the number of weekly deaths this year and average weekly deaths for the previous 5 years [Column C MINUS Column D] Differences in Column E as a percentage of the population (59110000) Differences in Column E as a percentage of the 5 year average The differences in Column E accumulated week on week
1 03-Jan-20 12254 12175 79 0.0001 0.9936 79
2 10-Jan-20 14058 13822 236 0.0004 0.9832 315
3 17-Jan-20 12990 13216 -226 -0.0004 1.0174 89
4 24-Jan-20 11856 12760 -904 -0.0015 1.0762 -815
5 31-Jan-20 11612 12206 -594 -0.0010 1.0512 -1409
6 07-Feb-20 10986 11925 -939 -0.0016 1.0855 -2348
7 14-Feb-20 10944 11627 -683 -0.0012 1.0624 -3031
8 21-Feb-20 10841 11548 -707 -0.0012 1.0652 -3738
9 28-Feb-20 10816 11183 -367 -0.0006 1.0339 -4105
10 06-Mar-20 10895 11498 -603 -0.0010 1.0553 -4708
11 13-Mar-20 11019 11205 -186 -0.0003 1.0169 -4894
12 20-Mar-20 10645 10573 72 0.0001 0.9932 -4822
13 27-Mar-20 11141 10130 1011 0.0017 0.9093 -3811
14 03-Apr-20 16387 10305 6082 0.0103 0.6289 2271
15 10-Apr-20 18516 10520 7996 0.0135 0.5682 10267
16 17-Apr-20 22351 10497 11854 0.0201 0.4696 22121
17 24-Apr-20 21997 10458 11539 0.0195 0.4754 33660
18 01-May-20 17953 9941 8012 0.0136 0.5537 41672
19 08-May-20 12657 9576 3081 0.0052 0.7566 44753
20 15-May-20 14573 10188 4385 0.0074 0.6991 49138
21 22-May-20 12288 9940 2348 0.0040 0.8089 51486
22 29-May-20 9824 8171 1653 0.0028 0.8317 53139
23 05-Jun-20 10709 9977 732 0.0012 0.9316 53871
24 12-Jun-20 9976 9417 559 0.0009 0.9440 54430
25 19-Jun-20 9339 9404 -65 -0.0001 1.0070 54365
26 26-Jun-20 8979 9293 -314 -0.0005 1.0350 54051
27 03-Jul-20 9140 9183 -43 -0.0001 1.0047 54008
28 10-Jul-20 8690 9250 -560 -0.0009 1.0644 53448
29 17-Jul-20 8823 9093 -270 -0.0005 1.0306 53178
30 24-Jul-20 8891 9052 -161 -0.0003 1.0181 53017
31 31-Jul-20 8946 9036 -90 -0.0002 1.0101 52927
32 07-Aug-20 8945 9102 -157 -0.0003 1.0176 52770
33 14-Aug-20 9392 9085 307 0.0005 0.9673 53077
34 21-Aug-20 9631 9157 474 0.0008 0.9508 53551
35 28-Aug-20 9032 8241 791 0.0013 0.9124 54342
36 04-Sep-20 7739 9182 -1443 -0.0024 1.1865 52899
37 11-Sep-20 9811 9306 505 0.0009 0.9485 53404
38 18-Sep-20 9523 9306 217 0.0004 0.9772 53621
39 25-Sep-20 9634 9377 257 0.0004 0.9733 53878
40 02-Oct-20 9945 9555 390 0.0007 0.9608 54268
41 09-Oct-20 9954 9811 143 0.0002 0.9856 54411
42 16-Oct-20 10534 9865 669 0.0011 0.9365 55080
43 23-Oct-20 10739 9759 980 0.0017 0.9087 56060
44 30-Oct-20 10887 9891 996 0.0017 0.9085 57056
45 06-Nov-20 11812 10331 1481 0.0025 0.8746 58537
46 13-Nov-20 12254 10350 1904 0.0032 0.8446 60441
47 20-Nov-20 12536 10380 2156 0.0036 0.8280 62597
48 27-Nov-20 12456 10357 2099 0.0036 0.8315 64696
49 04-Dec-20 12303 10695 1608 0.0027 0.8693 66304
50 11-Dec-20 12292 10750 1542 0.0026 0.8746 67846
51 18-Dec-20 13011 11548 1463 0.0025 0.8876 69309
52 25-Dec-20 11520 7954 3566 0.0060 0.6905 72875
53 01-Jan-21 10069 7954 2115 0.0036 0.7899 74990
1 08-Jan-21 17751 12175 5576 0.0094 0.6859 80566
2 15-Jan-21 18042 13822 4220 0.0071 0.7661 84786
3 22-Jan-21 18676 12990 5686 0.0096 0.6955 90472
4 29-Jan-21 18448 12760 5688 0.0096 0.6917 96160
5 05-Feb-21 17192 12208 4984 0.0084 0.7101 101144
6 12-Feb-21 15354 11925 3429 0.0058 0.7767 104573
7 19-Feb-21 13809 11627 2182 0.0037 0.8420 106755
8 26-Feb-21 12614 11528 1086 0.0018 0.9139 107841
9 05-Mar-21 11592 11183 409 0.0007 0.9647 108250
10 12-Mar-21 10987 11498 -511 -0.0009 1.0465 107739
11 19-Mar-21 10311 11205 -894 -0.0015 1.0867 106845
12 26-Mar-21 10045 10573 -528 -0.0009 1.0526 106317
13 02-Apr-21 8201 10130 -1929 -0.0033 1.2352 104388
14 08-Apr-21 9098 10305 -1207 -0.0020 1.1327 103181
15 16-Apr-21 10438 10520 -82 -0.0001 1.0079 103099
16 23-Apr-21 9941 10497 -556 -0.0009 1.0559 102543
17 30-Apr-21 9692 10458 -766 -0.0013 1.0790 101777
18 07-May-21 7986 9941 -1955 -0.0033 1.2448 99822
19 14-May-21 10164 9576 588 0.0010 0.9421 100410
20 21-May-21 9860 10188 -328 -0.0006 1.0333 100082
21 28-May-21 9628 9940 -312 -0.0005 1.0324 99770
22 04-Jun-21 7778 8171 -393 -0.0007 1.0505 99377
23 11-Jun-21 10204 9977 227 0.0004 0.9778 99604
24 18-Jun-21 9459 9417 42 0.0001 0.9956 99646
25 25-Jun-21 8690 9404 -714 -0.0012 1.0822 98932
26 02-Jul-21 8808 9293 -485 -0.0008 1.0551 98447
27 09-Jul-21 9752 9183 569 0.0010 0.9417 99016
28 16-Jul-21 9697 9250 447 0.0008 0.9539 99463
29 23-Jul-21 9744 9093 651 0.0011 0.9332 100114
30 30-Jul-21 10135 9052 1083 0.0018 0.8931 101197
31 06-Aug-21 10187 9036 1151 0.0019 0.8870 102348
32 13-Aug-21 10372 9102 1270 0.0021 0.8776 103618
33 20-Aug-21 10013 9085 928 0.0016 0.9073 104546
34 27-Aug-21 10268 9157 1111 0.0019 0.8918 105657
35 03-Sep-21 8797 8241 556 0.0009 0.9368 106213
36 10-Sep-21 11035 9182 1853 0.0031 0.8321 108066
37 17-Sep-21 11009 9306 1703 0.0029 0.8453 109769
38 24-Sep-21 10684 9264 1420 0.0024 0.8671 111189
39 01-Oct-21 10510 9377 1133 0.0019 0.8922 112322
40 08-Oct-21 10807 9555 1252 0.0021 0.8841 113574
41 15-Oct-21 11177 9811 1366 0.0023 0.8778 114940
42 22-Oct-21 11308 9865 1443 0.0024 0.8724 116383
43 29-Oct-21 10987 9759 1228 0.0021 0.8882 117611
44 05-Nov-21 11550 9891 1659 0.0028 0.8564 119270
45 12-Nov-21 12050 10331 1719 0.0029 0.8573 120989
46 19-Nov-21 12103 10350 1753 0.0030 0.8552 122742
47 26-Nov-21 11467 10380 1087 0.0018 0.9052 123829
GRAND TOTALS 1142535 1018706 123829 0.2095 0.8916

 

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